By Mike Lentz | The Mike Lentz Team – Keller Williams Realty
Why did housing market forecast changes happen in 2026?
Housing market forecast changes in 2026 reflect higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty that kept buyers on the sidelines longer than expected. South Jersey buyers and sellers are experiencing a slower but steadier market than economists originally projected. While home sales forecasts were revised lower, price appreciation forecasts remain positive across the region.
Back at the end of 2025, economists expected a much stronger housing market for 2026. They predicted mortgage rates in the low 6s, sharply improved affordability, and a real rebound in home sales. Half a year later, that forecast needs updating.
Lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions overseas pushed rates higher than anyone projected. Buyers in Camden, Burlington, Gloucester, Salem, and Cumberland counties felt that pressure. Many kept waiting. Experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year.
The national headlines paint a familiar picture: slower sales, still-rising prices. But look at what is actually happening in South Jersey, and the story gets more interesting. Our local market data tells a more nuanced tale than any national forecast can capture.
How Housing Market Forecast Changes Affected Mortgage Rates
Most buyers want rates back in the upper 5s or low 6s we saw briefly at the start of the year. That is not happening in 2026. Forecasts now call for rates in the mid 6s through year-end.
That is still lower than rates a year ago. And if the overseas conflict resolves or inflation drops, things could shift. But waiting for a specific rate target is a risky strategy, especially in South Jersey.
Here is why. Our median home prices range from $270,000 in Salem County to $392,500 in Burlington County. At these price points, a half-point rate difference changes your monthly payment by roughly $75 to $110. That matters, but it matters less than the price appreciation happening while you wait. Gloucester and Cumberland counties have both seen prices climb more than 8% year over year so far in 2026. A buyer who waited six months for a better rate may have lost more in price appreciation than they saved on the payment.
What the Housing Market Forecast Changes Mean for Home Sales
Last year, the U.S. recorded roughly 4.06 million existing home sales, a 30-year low. Heading into 2026, experts originally forecast 4.5 million sales, about an 11% improvement. That forecast has since been revised to 4.2 million. The important thing to note: even after the revision, experts still expect more homes to sell nationally this year than last year. The rebound is smaller than originally predicted, but it is still a rebound.
Locally, the picture is more mixed. Through the first four months of 2026, we have tracked 4,235 closed sales across Camden, Burlington, Gloucester, Salem, and Cumberland counties. Over the same January through April stretch in 2025, those five counties combined for 4,515 sales. That puts us about 6% behind last year’s pace.
The regional number masks a wide range. Camden County is actually up about 2% year to date, with 1,462 sales compared to 1,435 over the same period in 2025. Burlington County is down about 5%, tracking at 1,371 versus 1,449 last year. Cumberland County is similarly off about 5%. Gloucester County has seen the steepest pullback at about 17%, with 865 sales compared to 1,047. Salem County is down about 13%, though on a much smaller base of 203 sales.
Context matters here. Severe winter storms in February shut down showings and delayed closings across the entire region, which pulled down the year-to-date totals. We will have a clearer read on the underlying trend once May’s numbers are finalized in the next week or so.
The silver lining that gets buried in the sales numbers: competition is easing in ways buyers have not seen in years. The percentage of homes selling above list price has dropped significantly across all five counties compared to last year. Active inventory has risen double digits in both Camden and Burlington counties. Buyers now have more homes to choose from, more time to make decisions, and real negotiating leverage.
As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:
“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”
That pent-up demand is especially relevant here. Philadelphia’s job market consistently generates buyer demand that flows into South Jersey through the I-295 corridor and PATCO line. When rates stabilize, that pressure releases fastest in our transit-accessible communities. Camden County’s flat year-to-date pace despite higher rates tells that story clearly. The demand is there. It is just waiting.
New Construction Sales Also Slowed
Builders expected a stronger year nationally. Earlier forecasts projected over 700,000 new home sales; economists now expect just shy of that.
Nationally, newly built home prices have dropped to their lowest point since 2021, and builders across the country are adjusting strategies to move inventory. How that translates locally varies. Gloucester County remains the center of new construction activity in our region, with 771 permits issued in 2025, a 23.4% increase over the prior year. If you are considering new construction, it is worth understanding what specific incentives and pricing look like in the communities you are exploring.
Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise, and South Jersey Shows Why
This is the most important part of the forecast revision. Even with slower sales, experts did not lower their home price forecasts. Nationally, prices are still expected to rise.
Our local data confirms this, and in some cases amplifies it. Gloucester County’s median sale price is up 8.5% year over year as of the latest data. Cumberland County is up 9.1%. Those are not modest gains. They are outpacing the national trend while sales volume drops. Burlington County has shown steadier appreciation at about 2%.
Camden County’s median has dipped slightly from last year’s level. That tells an important story too. Camden’s pricing may be stabilizing after years of aggressive growth, while Gloucester and Cumberland absorb demand from buyers seeking more affordable options. We are watching an affordability migration play out across the region in real time.
The reason prices hold up even as sales slow: inventory is still limited overall. Active listings are rising, but not fast enough to shift the fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Strategic pricing matters more than ever. The days of listing high and hoping for a bidding war are behind us in most neighborhoods.
A Two-Speed Region: What Your County Data Actually Shows
National forecasts treat the market like one big number. South Jersey is not one market. It is at least two.
The suburban corridor counties, Camden and Burlington, move faster. Homes typically sell in under three weeks. A significant share still close above list price. Inventory is growing but remains competitive. These markets track closer to the Philadelphia metro, where job access and transit proximity support consistent demand.
The outer counties, Salem and Cumberland, operate at a different pace. Homes average 30 to 40 days on market. These are still healthy markets with solid price appreciation, but the tempo is different. Buyers have more time. Sellers need more patience. Pricing strategy and property condition matter even more.
Gloucester County sits in the middle, and right now it is experiencing the most interesting dynamics. Sales volume has dropped the most among our three major suburban counties, but prices have climbed the most. That combination often signals a market in transition rather than a market in trouble.
What This Means for You
The housing market has not rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. Higher inflation and economic uncertainty caused the forecast revisions. But these are temporary conditions, not structural shifts.
For South Jersey specifically, the year-to-date data suggests a healthier market than the national headlines imply. Prices are appreciating. Competition is easing. Inventory is growing. Homes are still selling within two to three weeks in our suburban counties. Those are not signs of a market in distress. They are signs of a market normalizing.
If you are buying, the reduced competition and growing inventory give you opportunities that did not exist a year ago. If you are selling, accurate pricing and strong marketing will get your home sold. The days of effortless multiple offers may be pausing, but well-prepared sellers are still achieving strong results.
If you want to talk through what this means for your situation, schedule a quick call and we will walk through it together.
For the full picture in your county, see our latest recaps for Camden, Burlington, Gloucester, Salem, and Cumberland counties.
